Looking at the current state of the world is a requisite step in forecasting. The way countries interact is shaped by necessity – be it economic, military or political. Their interactions may be hostile or cooperative, but interact they must. The world, then, is a kaleidoscope of contact, the significance of which is constantly changing. […]
Be warned, dear reader: This column is much more a personal reflection on geopolitical forecasting than a piece of geopolitical forecasting itself. It is...
Over the past weekend, major global media outlets revealed that the heads of intelligence of about two dozen countries held a (formerly) secret meeting...
Soon after Josef Stalin signed a mutual defense pact with Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that Russia was a mystery wrapped...
Last week, I wrote about the major expansion of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, Japanese alignment with Taiwan and possible three-way links with South Korea, and...
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited Washington last week, where he signed what is essentially a collective defense agreement. In doing so, he sealed...
There are too many unknowns to count in the Ukraine war. From the upcoming spring offensive to covert U.S. intelligence operations, mysteries abound. But...
The Road to 2040