HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

What Happens If Ukraine Falls?

I recently wrote about Russian preparations for a major offensive in Ukraine: a pincer movement that would close Ukrainian forces in from the north and the south. There is now general discussion of such a move by Russia in the next months, albeit configured in many different ways, most different from mine. Still, the important […]

Mysterious Balloons

The relationship between nations is always complex and sometimes difficult to understand. Sometimes it enters the realm of the bizarre. And then, at the...

Searching for a Defining Moment in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has not yet had a defining moment – that is, a watershed event giving one side or the other so...

Ukraine Heading to Another Showdown

I should say up front that I am not writing about Chinese balloons. Instead, I am writing about the situation in Ukraine, which is...

The Struggle to Understand

Earlier this week, we published a piece on the way Europe views Muslims. We received a number of emails from readers who criticized the...

On the Leaks of a War With China

Over the past few days, two senior U.S. officials – Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, and Michael...

Forecast for 2023

Our 2023 Annual Forecast, like those before it, is an attempt to provide a sense of the direction of the world. We do this...

Tech and Geopolitical Cycles

There have been seemingly endless reports of massive layoffs in the tech industry. Partly they are due to economic circumstances, of course, but overlooked...

Slouching Into Bethlehem

In his poem titled “The Second Coming,” William Butler Yeats asks what kind of “beast … slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?” Perhaps he...

The Wagner Group and Russia’s New General

Moscow has relieved its current general in Ukraine, placing him under the staff of his successor, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. In a way, this makes...

China and the Philippines

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited President Xi Jinping in China, where they agreed to cooperate in peace and security operations and...

Putting the World in Perspective

In working on GPF’s Annual Forecast recently, I was looking for ways to measure national power and differentiate countries with large mouths from countries...

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