HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Ukraine’s Air War

The ground war in Ukraine appears to have come to a halt. There is, of course, continued movement at the tactical level, but a...

The Geopolitics Behind a Normal Meeting

Small things can reveal much larger geopolitical truths. Such is the case of a recent meeting of the U.S.-China financial working group. The group,...

Update on the War in Ukraine

Two and a half years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, a former part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. The reason for the...

The New Reality in the Ukraine War

Last week, Ukraine did what many thought impossible when it invaded Russia – and, indeed, something that had not happened since World War II....

The Link Between Two Wars

Over the past few days, two statements have come to redefine the Middle East – though they were issued not by Israel or Hamas...

Russia and China Test the US and Canada

Last week, several Russian and Chinese bombers coordinated an approach to the Alaskan coast. The planes were intercepted by U.S. and Canadian fighters. At...

US Strategy in Europe

One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States' relationship with Europe. Donald Trump...

Searching for a Cause

The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should...

The Euro-American Shift

There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system....

Herrings and the Courts

Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF:...

A Fundamental Rift in Israel

After Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Israel’s intention was to annihilate the group, or at least cripple it to the point that it could no...

The World of Balance

The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact...

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