GPF Team

The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List […]

Feb. 17, 2017

George Friedman and Jacob Shapiro discuss the resignation of Mike Flynn and US foreign policy. Click here to sign up for free updates on topics like this.

Feb. 17, 2017 There is an increasing probability that a real estate bubble may burst in China. The financial sector heavily depends on real estate, which in turn exposes the entire Chinese economy to systemic risk. This connection means that a downturn in real estate could quickly spread to other areas of the Chinese economy if banks face liquidity shortfalls. Additionally, decreasing housing prices could result in more non-performing loans (NPLs). While NPLs officially account for only 1.75 percent of all Chinese loans, it’s likely that the government is understating the figure. BMI Research, a financial consulting firm, estimated in a 2016 report that NPLs could be close to 20 percent of loans.

Feb. 17, 2017 Conflict between Muslim groups is nothing new.

Feb. 16, 2017 If all this is true, the Russians have seen a brilliant plan blow up in their faces.