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GPF Team

GPF Team
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Geopolitical Futures is a company that charts the course of the international system. It’s an ambitious mission, maybe even foolhardy, but hear us out.

Islamic State’s Warning on Paris Attacks

Nov. 16, 2015 Iraq’s intelligence service received a warning that Islamic State was planning to attack coalition countries prior to the deadly attacks in Paris.

The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks

Nov. 16. 2015 The terrorist attacks in Paris indicate a new level of sophistication in Islamic State’s planning and coordination.

Renewed Fighting in Ukraine

Nov. 16, 2015 New fighting in eastern Ukraine has disturbed the relative calm of a ceasefire agreed to in September.

The Middle East and North Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 The Middle East today is defined by an Arab world steeped in the anarchy of dissolving secular states and proliferating Islamist armed non-state actors. These entities consist of different Muslim sects, the largest of which is composed of Sunnis. Amid the diverging interests, Saudi Arabia and the Islamic State are the main contenders for Sunni Arab leadership. Meanwhile, the three non-Arab powers – Turkey, Iran and Israel – are trying to manage the regional commotion according to their national interests.

Net Assessment of the Middle East and North Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 Modern Middle Eastern states were largely formed by the British and French starting at the conclusion of World War I. The region today is struggling with a deep divide between declining secular regimes and emerging Islamist non-state actors.

Net Assessment of South Asia

Dec. 2, 2015 South Asia is home to almost a quarter of the world’s population. The region’s geopolitical reality is dominated by a complex series of power dynamics, centered on the relationship between Pakistan and India.

Net Assessment of the European Peninsula

Dec. 2, 2015 Europe is coming to a turning point. The European Union has been slowly fragmenting, strained under the pressure of the financial and refugee crises. Countries will soon have to decide between maintaining their own sovereignty and building a strong, powerful union to solve these pivotal issues.

The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Net Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 While the continent in some ways is still struggling to overcome the effects of its colonial past, some sub-Saharan African countries have produced high growth rates in recent years and may become the sorely needed future leaders for the region.

The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.