Geopolitical Futures

Terms of a deal. The Trump administration has reportedly made clear to Ukrainian officials that U.S. security guarantees would depend on Kyiv’s willingness to sign a peace agreement that includes its cession of the Donbas region to Russia. Washington also indicated it could offer Ukraine more weapons to strengthen its army during peacetime if Kyiv […]

Earlier this month, we explained in our 2026 Forecast that the U.S. cannot maintain hostilities with a country on which it depends economically. Neither can China. In this week’s ClubGPF live discussion, János Csák, Former Minister of Culture and Innovation in Hungary, joined Chairman George Friedman once more to give a European perspective on the US' National Security Strategy as well as GPF's new 2026 Forecast, specifically our prediction that the United States and China will reach economic and military accommodations.

Reshuffle. China has launched an investigation into two senior military officials for suspected violations of “discipline and law.” Zhang Youxia is the first-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military...

(click to enlarge) In the coming weeks, U.S., Danish, Greenlandic and NATO officials will meet to discuss a possible deal regarding the future of Greenland. Such a deal would likely...

Renewed dialogue. Ukraine, Russia and the United States will hold talks in Abu Dhabi on Friday, the first trilateral dialogue since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the early...

Earlier this month, Geopolitical Futures released its annual Forecast, which focuses on the most critical changes to the international order in the year to come. One of the featured predictions in this year's Forecast was on the shifting relationship between the United States and China. It is a relationship that GPF Chairman George Friedman believes will define the next generation of international relations. This week on Talking Geopolitics, George joined host Christian Smith to give a preview of this forecast, and we'll even dive into the perplexing logic of Donald Trump's will-he, won't-he attempt to take ownership of Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally.