Geopolitical Futures

Escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, a week after the U.S. seized a sanctioned vessel carrying oil in the Caribbean off the Venezuelan coast. In a social media post, Trump also suggested Caracas should cede land, oil and assets to the […]

For the United States, hemispheric security doesn’t just call for military dominance; it calls for the absence of anti-U.S. governments. Washington believes that by removing these governments, it can...

The year is coming to a close, and with that, GPF celebrates its 10th anniversary. For this week’s special ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman is joined by...

European commitment. The leaders of 14 European nations released a statement outlining the security guarantees that they, in addition to the United States, are willing to offer Ukraine. They...

As tensions rise between Washington and Moscow, a new chessboard is emerging—not in Eastern Europe, but in the Caribbean. From the U.S.’ war on drug cartels to Russia’s quiet buildup of influence in the region, old Cold War strategies are resurfacing in startling ways. In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman and GPF Analyst and Army veteran Andrew Davidson dove into the recent U.S. deployments off the coast of Venezuela and the broader strategy of the U.S. in Latin America. Recorded November 20, 2025.

Sanctions relief. The United States will lift sanctions on Belarusian potassium, U.S. special envoy John Cole announced following a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Cole also said more...