A New Phase in the US-China Trade War

Trump insists that Beijing wants to make a deal.

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2025 U.S.-China Tariff Battle
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Markets briefly stabilized after a 90-day reprieve on some of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the U.S.-China trade war is escalating rapidly. The standoff dates back to the middle of Trump’s first term, yet recent developments confirm that the conflict has entered an explosive new phase. Neither side wants a complete break. American consumers still rely on Chinese manufacturing, and China remains too integral to global supply chains. Likewise, for Beijing, the American market is too valuable, and severing ties would disrupt China’s own production and growth.

Trump insists a deal with China is still likely. If that’s true, the current tariff exchange may be posturing ahead of negotiations. But this tit-for-tat strategy comes with risk. Markets are jumpy. Each new statement from either side now has the potential to trigger volatility and fuel investor pessimism.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.