Originally produced on Aug. 29, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC
In every battle, whenever the enemy achieves surprise—from Pearl Harbor to the Bulge, Chosin Reservoir to Tet—everyone is stunned. But within a decade, the number of those who were stunned drops off, and the world is filled with people who knew it was coming. In every intelligence service, there are bits of information pointing at the absolutely obvious fact that an attack was coming. But they only point to anything after it happens.
So too with September 11, 2001.
I know of two classes of people. There are those who knew all along that this was coming. And there are those who are convinced that the government knew or should have known. There is a guy at a mobile hot-dog stand on K Street in DC. He will swear that he passed on conclusive warning of the attack and was ignored.
Retrospective genius or expectation of genius is part of our culture.
What Happened That Day
When I recons