From the Forecast: “Given the ongoing investigation into Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election, it is very unlikely that sanctions will be reduced, which appears to leave U.S.-Russian relations suspended for now.”
Update: It has been a less-than-ideal year for our forecasts of U.S.-Russia relations. At the beginning of the year, we expected that Russia would be willing to make compromises in exchange for the removal of sanctions or for concessions on issues in its near abroad, especially in relation to the frozen conflict in Ukraine. We expected that the United States, while interested in such accommodations, would be so inwardly focused that it probably wouldn’t give Russia any ground. As a result, we expected that U.S.-Russia relations would be “suspended” – that is to say, they would not get much better or worse.
As we have said in previous installments, our assessment of Russia’s imperatives was, broadly speaking, accurate. The height of Russi