Update on Russia’s Internal Conflict

Conflicting reports don’t shed much light on the supposed coup underway.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s private military firm known as the Wagner Group, has accused the Russian military of attacking his forces and said he would answer with attacks of his own. Conflicting reports on social media suggest Russian military vehicles are on the streets of major Russian cities in anticipation of what Russia’s attorney general has called an “attempt to organize an armed rebellion.” Some reports claim that a column of Wagner personnel has passed through the Novoshakhtinsk checkpoint. Another says that at the Voloshino checkpoint there is a column of Wagner forces some 80 kilometers long. It is believed that military police and border guards are not interfering with Wagner’s forces. In the face of what may or may not be a coup attempt, the government’s primary objectives are to increase security in Moscow proper. We cannot confirm at the moment what exactly is going on, but we know that this may be an inflection point in the conflict.

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.