Ukraine War Weighs Down European Economies

The countries closest to the war in Ukraine saw their economies shrink in the second quarter.

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European Union Economic Update | Q2-2022
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Europe is bearing the brunt of the economic war raging between Russia and the West. On the whole, European economies grew in the second quarter of the year, driven by household consumption and government spending. However, the countries closest to the Russia-Ukraine war, such as Poland and the Baltic states, saw their economies shrink for a variety of reasons.

The Continent’s growth prospects for the remainder of the year are significantly worse. Already in Q3 an energy crunch combined with high temperatures and drought – which disrupted power generation – have driven up electricity costs, in turn hindering industrial activity. As temperatures fall later in the year, demand for natural gas will rise, potentially pushing prices even higher. The European Union and national governments are discussing countermeasures, such as mandatory cuts to electricity consumption and price caps for natural gas, but it’s far from clear that they will succeed.

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Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.