Crisis In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine isn’t just a Ukrainian affair. It has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global landscape. In some ways it already has: Germany is rearming, NATO has awakened, commodities prices are through the roof, and Russia is increasingly isolated. The extent to which the global order changes will depend largely on how long the conflict drags out.

Recent Analysis: Ukraine

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Daily Memo: China’s Taiwan White Paper, Turkey Seeking Funds

Zero tolerance. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office issued a white paper in which it vowed zero tolerance for separatism and reaffirmed that it would seize...

A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

Daily Memo: Latest Ukraine Aid Package, New START on Pause

Resupply. The United States announced a $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine that includes ammunition for rocket artillery and missile systems as well...

Russia’s Protracted War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is raging with no end in sight. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to sit at the negotiation table. Both...

Daily Memo: Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan, Grain Corridor Open

Taiwan visit. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning to meet with Taiwan’s president,...

Daily Memo: Egypt Cancels Ukraine Wheat Deals

Canceled. Egypt has terminated contracts to purchase 240,000 metric tons of wheat from Ukraine, which it agreed to in December 2021. The wheat was...

Daily Memo: Europe’s Coal and Gas Supplies, Russia’s Car Imports

Energy for Europe. Kazakhstan has doubled coal exports to the European Union since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the beginning of...

Strange Events and the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russia and Ukraine have signed an agreement to permit the shipping of grain through the Black Sea to world markets. A few hours after...

Latest Posts


Ekaterina Zolotova on The John Batchelor Show: Russia and the Energy-Rich Caspian Region

As Europe looks to sources outside of Russia to meet their energy demands, the continent sees Caspian countries like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as key alternative energy suppliers. Moscow-based Analyst Ekaterina Zolotova joins John Batchelor to discuss why this region is so promising and what are the challenges that lie ahead.

George Friedman on The John Batchelor Show: Deep Battle and the Russian Military Doctrine

Russia is now in full control of Ukraine’s breakaway Luhansk region, putting it in position to gain control over more of Donetsk. Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman joins John Batchelor to discuss what Russia plans to do next, and to examine its military doctrine as it has evolved since the Cold War, a topic he recently wrote about for GPF.

George Friedman on The Gallup Podcast: Russia Isn’t Winning in Ukraine, ‘But It’s No Longer Losing’

Is anyone actually winning the war in Ukraine? Are European leaders already positioning themselves for post-conflict relations with Russia? George Friedman joins Gallup Podcast host Mohamed Younis to discuss China's and Germany's positioning throughout the conflict, U.S. standing in NATO and more.

RealClearDefense: Russian Military Doctrine

The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia. Russia has the choice of accepting its recent victory as the culmination of the war or...

L’Express: Les Idiots Utiles Dont Indispensables aux Mensonges de Poutine, par George Friedman

Les Russes sincèrement convaincus par la désinformation jouent un rôle essentiel : ils garantissent la survie du système, estime le fondateur de Geopolitical Futures. Full...


Antonia Colibasanu on TRT World: UN Warns of Food Crisis Over Russia’s Blockade of Ukraine’s Ports

Russia has effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports, an action the UN describes as a declaration of war on global food security. Ukraine usually exports about five million tons of agricultural produce every month, a large proportion of which is bought by some of the poorest nations in the world. Antonia Colibasanu weighs in on the Kremlin’s economic war on Kyiv.

Antonia Colibasanu on TRT World: Russia’s Export Ban and the Global Markets

Russia has announced that it will ban the export of 200 products, including many raw materials used by manufacturing, food processing, construction and tech companies in retaliation for Western sanctions. Antonia Colibasanu explains what this means for the global markets.

Mauldin Economics Global Macro Update: George Friedman on Russia, Ukraine, and Global Trade

The world order centers around trade in U.S. dollars. Both Russia and China have been sent very clear messages that that could be shut off overnight. What are the potential implications of that for both sides? And how does the conflict in Ukraine end?
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