Russia and China Unite Over Mongolia

But the pursuit of influence in the strategically important country could one day drive them apart.

2027
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The periphery commands growing attention. Amid ongoing Western pressure on Russia and the complexities confronting the Chinese economy, both nations seek to cultivate alternative transit routes and foster trade ties. Mongolia, strategically wedged between them, is garnering mounting interest as a transit hub. The three nations have signaled a shared commitment to bolster trilateral cooperation, with the construction of the China-Russia-Mongolia economic corridor ranking high on their agenda.

In September, diplomatic interactions and gatherings surged. A noteworthy assembly convened, featuring luminaries such as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Mongolia’s National Security Council secretary. Ambitious blueprints emerged for the creation of five road and three railway corridors in Mongolia. This trajectory sets the stage for enhanced cooperation, yet it also harbors potential pitfalls, including competition for influence in Mongolia not only among global and regional powers but also between China and Russia.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.