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Geopolitical Forecasting

Analyzing the forces that drive nations’ behavior

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    Welcome to Geopolitical Futures

    We write for the learned public: for those of you who want to understand the world you live in and are citizens of every country, for the public engaged in all walks of life. We believe that democracy can survive only if there is a segment of society that is not caught up in the passions of the moment, but is eager to look at the world as it is. I and my team may have our personal beliefs, but in our work we strive to be objective and indifferent to the opinions swirling around the world. We hope you’ll join us in our quest.

    - George Friedman,
    Founder, Geopolitical Futures


    Unbiased, Objective Reports

    We give you a radically non-ideological perspective, based on a different view of the world. Our selection of what’s important derives from geopolitical trends, not from the media or online chatter.

    Intelligence Analysis

    We use intelligence analysis to discover the small things that will define the future. Geopolitics defines the broad thrusts; intelligence analysis tracks its movements.

    Successful Forecasting

    Our forecasting model is based on the assumption that impersonal forces – things like geography, politics, economics, military capability and demography – govern world leaders, not the other way around. It’s an important distinction you don’t see anywhere else.


    Geopolitical Forecasts

    Geopolitical Futures predicts the actions nations will take based on global cycles and patterns of conflict. Our annual forecast highlights processes that will have lasting consequences and broad geopolitical impact.
    Our forecast:

    1. Reveals the underlying forces driving global behavior
    2. Explains how the present fits into longer-term geopolitical processes
    3. Shows which countries are on the rise
    4. Anticipates shifts in the global economy and trade

    Our Content

    As a Geopolitical Futures subscriber, you’ll receive regular updates on what’s important today and what’s to come in the future. This includes real-time Briefs on the world’s most pressing geopolitical events, daily in-depth Analysis from our global team of analysts, and a concise Daily Memo to give you exactly what is geopolitically important today.

    FREE Featured Content

    Brief: North Korea Tests a Missile and Biden

    Background: North Korea has been relatively quiet for the past year or so while it deals with pandemic pressures and other internal matters, which...

    Daily Memo: US, UK, Australia Forge New Security Pact

    Joining forces. British, Australian and U.S. leaders announced a new security partnership for the Indo-Pacific on Wednesday. The trilateral “AUKUS” program will focus on...

    The Nagging Question in the Indo-Pacific

    Senior U.S. diplomats were fanned out across the Indo-Pacific last week. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin toured Southeast Asia, outlining to circumspect U.S. partners...

    Podcast: Talking Geopolitics

     Subscriber-only Analysis 

    Daily Memo: Talks Over Gibraltar in Brussels, Preparing for the Worst in China

    Contentious talks. Britain said it was considering its options if it does not reach...

    The Syrian Kurds’ Long Road to Recognition

    The origins of the Kurdish question in Syria can be traced back to the...

    George Friedman

    Why Australia Spurned France

    The decision by the Australian government to join a U.S.-British consortium to help construct a nuclear submarine capability enraged...

    Bonus Chapter: The Five Eyes

    Editor’s note: In a supplementary chapter of his book “The Storm Before the Calm,” GPF founder George Friedman wrote...

    Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

    Information Collection

    Extensive open-source information collection keeps us abreast of world events no matter how obscure. It draws from English and foreign language sources and includes traditional media as well as government, institutional and other primary source report from all over the world.

    Strategic Intelligence

    We make sense of the world by overlaying collected information with our model. Our model tells us how to expect a country to behave based on what it must have in order to remain secure, the limits imposed on it and the means at its disposal to take action.

    Net Assessment

    The net assessment is the current snapshot of a country’s position and power at a particular moment in time.  It reflects the realities facing a country in terms of what cannot be done and what must be done in the present, thereby enabling us to predict its future behavior.

    Understand the Issues That Are Shaping the World's Future

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