The latest U.N. trade data show that the global decline in goods trade is ending – with a few important caveats. First, trade flows have been and will continue dividing into blocs whose members have similar geopolitical perspectives. Second, differing rates of economic growth will likely lead to further changes in trade patterns. Third, increased competition for container shipping will likely raise transport costs and cause delays for some goods, while intense competition for essential raw materials will refocus trade toward securing these supplies. Finally, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel will continue to disrupt shipping lanes and drive up commodity prices, affecting global trade flows.
Major Trends in Global Trade
Trade may be recovering, but in fundamentally different ways from the pre-pandemic norm.
The Geopolitics of the American President &