Major Trends in Global Trade

Trade may be recovering, but in fundamentally different ways from the pre-pandemic norm.

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Global Trade Update
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The latest U.N. trade data show that the global decline in goods trade is ending – with a few important caveats. First, trade flows have been and will continue dividing into blocs whose members have similar geopolitical perspectives. Second, differing rates of economic growth will likely lead to further changes in trade patterns. Third, increased competition for container shipping will likely raise transport costs and cause delays for some goods, while intense competition for essential raw materials will refocus trade toward securing these supplies. Finally, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel will continue to disrupt shipping lanes and drive up commodity prices, affecting global trade flows.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.