Israel/Palestine Conflict

The fighting that erupted between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7 was no ordinary flare-up. It shattered the relative calm observed in the Middle East over the past few of years – a result of Israel’s efforts to reclaim its international status; of Iran’s efforts to reconcile with its neighbors; and of new alignments slowly forming among erstwhile enemies. Regional leadership and power dynamics are directly at stake, as is the potential shape of the Middle East itself.

The State of the Israeli-Gaza Conflict

Analysis George Friedman - May 12, 2021

The origins of the modern Arab-Israeli conflict are pretty well known. Gaza, the narrow strip of land running to the Sinai Peninsula, was originally...

The Drumbeat of War in the Middle East

Analysis Hilal Khashan - June 22, 2023

Threats of impending war have permeated the Middle East since Israel’s establishment in 1948. Though Egypt made peace with Israel in 1978 and Jordan...

The Eclipse of the Palestinian Question

Analysis Hilal Khashan - May 20, 2021

Until the 1970s, the Palestinian question had preoccupied the Arab world since the creation of Israel in 1948. Public figures and ordinary Arabs were...

West Bank Violence Stalls Arab-Israeli Normalization

Analysis Hilal Khashan - February 9, 2023

Last month, three senior U.S. officials visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories to try to avert a third Palestinian intifada. National Security Adviser Jake...

Recent Analysis: Israel & Palestine

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Daily Memo: US Discusses Task Force to Protect Ships in the Red Sea

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - December 5, 2023

Red Sea security. Iran has reportedly deployed three ships – a support ship, a bulk carrier converted for reconnaissance missions and a container ship...

Arab Strategic Miscalculations

Analysis Hilal Khashan - December 5, 2023

Countries of all stripes – whether developed or underdeveloped, democratic or authoritarian – have been known to commit strategic military miscalculations. The U.S., for...

Daily Memo: Israel Update, Problems for British Banking

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - December 1, 2023

Fighting continues. Israel Defense Forces said on Friday they would resume combat operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the group violated the cease-fire...

Daily Memo: Russian Critique, Turkey’s Economy

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - November 30, 2023

Pushback. Russian oil giant Rosneft expressed rare criticism of the country's Finance Ministry and central bank. In remarks attributed to the company's chair, Igor...

Qatar’s Role in the Gaza Conflict

Analysis Kamran Bokhari - November 30, 2023

Qatar is a unique state in the Middle East. Despite its small size and tiny population, it is awash in energy resources, ranking number...

Daily Memo: Intel Chiefs Meeting in Doha, China-Myanmar Drills

Americas Geopolitical Futures - November 29, 2023

Israel developments. Intelligence chiefs from the U.S., Israel and Egypt met on Tuesday with Qatar’s prime minister in Doha to discuss terms for extending...

Daily Memo: Russia’s Budget Gap, Turkey’s Gas Hub

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - November 27, 2023

Russian deficit. Russia’s Finance Ministry plans to make the governors of select regions personally responsible for the country’s ballooning budget deficit. The heads of...

Daily Memo: Cease-fire in Gaza, Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - November 22, 2023

Deal reached. Israel and Hamas agreed to a four-day cease-fire. According to various sources, Hamas will release 50 hostages it captured during its Oct....

Gaza and the Making of a New Middle East Order

Analysis Hilal Khashan - November 22, 2023

The ferocity of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas will reshape the Middle East. Its brutality is reminiscent of World War II's final...

Daily Memo: Closer to a Pause in Gaza

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - November 21, 2023

Almost there. Israel and Hamas continue to progress toward a temporary cease-fire to allow the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The Israeli...

Daily Memo: Iran’s Support for Hamas, Slovakia’s Frustration at Ukrainian Truckers

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - November 17, 2023

Pledging unity. The head of Iran’s elite Quds Force confirmed the unity of the so-called “axis of resistance” in a letter to the commander...

The Gaza War Threatens Jordan

Analysis Kamran Bokhari - November 16, 2023

Unlike previous wars in Gaza, the current conflict has the potential to expand to the West Bank, where clashes involving Palestinians, Jewish settlers and...

Terrorism Hot Spots

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Weekly Graphic Geopolitical Futures - December 8, 2023

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Daily Memo: China-Philippines Tension, Regional Conflicts on the Rise

Analysis Geopolitical Futures - December 11, 2023

China and India Struggling in Afghanistan

Analysis Kamran Bokhari - December 11, 2023

Audio & Video

Geopolitics in the 21st Century | The Emerging World Order

Podcast Geopolitical Futures - November 21, 2023

On this episode of Talking Geopolitics we conclude our subscriber-only limited series, Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Chairman George Friedman and host Christian Smith focus in on the big picture of geopolitics. There is a new order coming, but unlike the reordering that took place after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. How and why is the world changing? What will this new world look like when it's emerged?

Israel at War | ClubGPF Preview with George Friedman and Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann

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Video Geopolitical Futures - November 2, 2023

Over three weeks after Hamas’ unprecedented Oct. 7 attack on Israel shocked the world, there are still so many questions that need to be answered. In our recent ClubGPF discussion, George Friedman was joined by special guest Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann to explain what we know (and what we do not yet know) about where things stand with the conflict.