Intermarium Strategic Survey 2 – 08/2022


Today we present to you another edition of the Intermarium Strategic Survey. In this installment you will find three texts recently published at the Strategy&Future webpage.

First of the three, “Ukraine, sequencing and denial” attempts to lay out the rationale behind the US actions before and during the war in Ukraine, as well as explain, why the United States cannot afford the luxury of taking a backseat in European affairs, and focus exclusively on managing its relationship with China. If the US is to avoid running the risk of Kennan’s nightmare of consolidated Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok to Beijing materializing, it must remain a present and active element of security architecture in the Intermarium region – the only part of Europe, where it’s presence is truly needed and desired.

The second article, titled “Poland in Ukraine” is effectively a call to arms, directed towards Polish entrepreneurs that have before, or currently are, engaged in business in Ukraine. The goal is to collect their experiences and lessons learned, that could then help guide and shape efforts of the Polish government aimed at more effectively supporting expansion of Polish business into Ukraine. We believe that this increased presence of Polish business in Ukraine is something that could be mutually beneficial for the Ukrainians, and the Poles alike.

Lastly, “The Scalable world war ahead” describes the nature of the – we believe already ongoing – world war. The key signature characteristic of the looming conflict, is that unlike previous global conflicts, it is scalable, and is not necessarily (or, more worryingly: yet) defined exclusively by kinetic operations. Rather, it will play out across multiple domains: trade, norms, technological standards, finance, flows of goods, people and data. The focal point of this conflict will therefore be the manipulation of strategic flows and thus influencing the opponent’s stability and social contract.

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