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Russia, Ukraine and Thinking Extreme Thoughts

In a recent article, I wrote that the war in Ukraine is over, but nobody knows how to end it. What I meant by...

The Last War

The world is focused on the Hamas-Israel war that is now raging. But this war has its psychological antecedents in a war that occurred...

The World Begins to Reorder Itself

I wrote a few months ago that the world is in the process of reordering itself, something it does every few generations. It is...

The War Is Over, but No One Knows How to Stop Fighting

It has been more than one and a half years since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine. The war has not gone as the...

Russia Seals Its Southern Border

Russia's focus currently is on its western front, in Ukraine and neighboring countries. There is, however, another front that concerns Russia: its southern border,...

The Chinese Mystery

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has disappeared. Some reports say he was meeting with Vietnamese officials when he was escorted away, but according to...

9/11: The Perfect Op

It has been 22 years since the 9/11 attack that destroyed the World Trade Center buildings and a wing of the Pentagon and launched...

A Shift in Ukrainian Strategy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced over the weekend that he replaced his defense minister with someone new – unsurprising, given the exhaustion the minister...

Prigozhin RIP, Or Do the Best You Can

Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead. He died of a fatal dose of self-confidence. He made three mistakes. First, he thought himself a...

Next Stage of Forecasting

As we at GPF undertake our next long-term forecast, we’d like to do so with a degree of transparency. A degree is all we...

Belarus Reaches Out to Poland and the EU

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made a speech last week in which he appeared to be reaching out to the West. Belarus has been a...

The State of the War in Ukraine

A month and a half ago, right after the attempted Wagner coup, there appeared to be chaos in Moscow, with the future of President...

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