Daily Memo: The Limits of the Coronavirus, Global Security Issues, the...

The grimmest estimates can be helpful for policymakers to know what they need to prepare for.

Daily Memo: Idlib Tests Turkey’s Patience, India-Australia Cooperation, North Korea Low...

Turkey accused Russia of failing to live up to its promises, and the Bank of Korea said Pyongyang was running out of cash.

The Geopolitical Consequences of Australia’s Wildfires

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The tragedy has been well documented, but its potential global effects have not.

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics […]

Pacific Aid and Allegiances

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In recent weeks, the Solomon Islands' allegiance to Taiwan appeared shaky as mainland China sought to coax the island nation into its camp. The strategically located Pacific Islands are a soft-power battleground between the U.S. and China; here, we take a closer look at the evolution of aid - a key tool for maintaining allegiances - to these islands between 2011 and 2017.