South Pacific

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t...

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign Policy Review

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for...

Pacific Aid and Allegiances

In recent weeks, the Solomon Islands' allegiance to Taiwan appeared shaky as mainland China sought to coax the island nation into its camp. The strategically located Pacific Islands are a soft-power battleground between the U.S. and China; here, we take a closer look at the evolution of aid - a key tool for maintaining allegiances - to these islands between 2011 and 2017.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Second Quarter Update

The trade war roller coaster, the economy's other shoe, the offensive against Iran.

Drought Hits Australian Wheat Supplies

Australia, normally a net exporter of wheat, has had to import wheat for the first time since 2007.

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