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Regional Directory

Ethiopia’s Timely Sea Access Deal With Somaliland

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s announcement on Jan. 1 of a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland marked a pivotal moment in his country’s long search for unrestricted access to the sea. The agreement would grant Ethiopia access to 20 kilometers (12 miles) of coastline, including the port of Berbera, through a 50-year lease. Freed from […]

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

How Mexico Plans to Reclaim Its Economy

In Mexico, security and economic recovery are intertwined. Politicians and citizens alike understand that the country’s powerful criminal groups threaten both, and though they...

U.S. and Iranian Intentions

Three U.S. servicemen were killed during a drone attack last night on a military base in Jordan, located near the Syrian border. President Joe...

Daily Memo: Houthis Meet in Moscow, Israeli Defense Deal

The Houthis and the Kremlin. Representatives from Yemen’s Houthi rebels arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and discuss...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

Daily Memo: Macron in India, US Forces in Iraq

France and India. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron began a two-day visit to India, where he will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi....

Middle East Conflict Reshapes India-Iran Relations

The U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East may be a boon to India. The Houthi attacks, which have disrupted global shipping, allow New Delhi...

Daily Memo: Poland and Germany Brace for Demos, Iranian and Russian Security Chiefs Meet

Protests in Europe. Farmers in Poland are holding nationwide protests on Wednesday against what they see as unfair competition from third countries, including Ukraine....

Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history...

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