Europe

Serbian Protests at a Turning Point

Last week’s demonstrations in Serbia marked a dramatic escalation in a protest movement that began late last year over the collapse of a train...

Risk and Reward in the AI Arms Race

Artificial intelligence is emerging as the strategic high ground in warfare, promising faster targeting, smarter weapons and operations beyond human capacity. Several imperatives are...

Reviving NATO’s Eastern Line

Over the past decade, NATO’s containment line has steadily shifted eastward, stretching from the Baltic Sea in the north through the Black Sea region...

The Future of Green Hydrogen Is Out of Reach

A recent Reuters investigation shed some light on the current state of green hydrogen, a potentially game-changing technology that, in theory, is renewable and...

Putin’s Dilemma

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In analyzing the process by which the Russia-Ukraine war will end, the most critical factor, as I have argued before, is that by not...

On Immigration, Will EU Members Go It Alone?

Summer months in Europe traditionally bring calmer seas, which in turn bring more immigrants across the Mediterranean. Some nations are already wary. This year,...

US, Europe Bet on Banks to Fund Strategic Priorities

Both Washington and Brussels are signaling a major break from the regulatory posture that has defined the trans-Atlantic financial architecture since the 2008 global...

Cautiously Optimistic EU Economic Data

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(click to enlarge) In the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone recorded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, doubling the 0.3 percent rate seen in the...

Belarus’ Foreign Policy Returns to an Old Playbook

At the annual Eurasian Economic Forum hosted in Minsk last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country’s foreign policy would prioritize building a...

Iran Conflict Puts Trans-Atlantic Ties to the Test

Fresh off a G7 meeting that exposed deep disagreements between the U.S. and Europe over trade and multilateralism, leaders of NATO countries are gathering...

Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Iran: Searching for the Significant

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The Ukrainian drone attack on Russia at the beginning of this month and the Israeli attack on Iran have some striking similarities. 1. Both attacks...

German and Japanese Military Resurgence

The United States is stepping back from its role as the world’s security guarantor – a position it has held for some 80 years....

France’s Plan to Bridge Europe and Asia

France is implementing a new grand strategy in response to a rapidly changing world and an array of regional and global challenges. Defense is...

The Evolution of the Global Defense Industry

The global defense industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by rapid technological advancement and growing concern over supply chain resilience. The changes underway...

Report From Serbia

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I first visited Serbia in the early 1970s. At the time, I was genuinely unaware that I was in Serbia. I thought I was...

Report From Bucharest

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My wife and I arrived in Romania last Wednesday after a two-night stopover and time adjustment in Frankfurt. We stayed in Bucharest with Antonia...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

George Friedman on Why Trump’s Tariffs on India Are Part of a Wider Geopolitical Game

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The impending 25 per cent tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil appears bold. While the US said its primary motivation was to hit Putin where it hurts, it understandably prompted a strong reaction from the government in New Delhi. So why is the US government willing to target India, what does China have to do with it, and what does it say about Trump's overall strategy? GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith to discuss all this, and whether it will actually work.

George Friedman on Why Trump’s Tariffs on India Are Part of a Wider Geopolitical Game

FREE
The impending 25 per cent tariffs on India over its purchase of Russian oil appears bold. While the US said its primary motivation was to hit Putin where it hurts, it understandably prompted a strong reaction from the government in New Delhi. So why is the US government willing to target India, what does China have to do with it, and what does it say about Trump's overall strategy? GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith to discuss all this, and whether it will actually work.

Daily Memo: French Politics, US-Russia Relations

Another rupture. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called a confidence vote for Sept. 8 over his plan to cut spending by 44 billion...

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