Americas

US, Panama Mind the Darien Gap

The Darien Gap – once considered little more than a narrow, impenetrable jungle along Colombia’s border with Panama – has slowly become one of...

Graphic Essay: Global Chokepoints in Maritime Trade

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our long-form...

Peru Follows the Money to China

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte will pay a weeklong visit to China at the end of June – the first head of state to do...

In Cuba, Russia Explores a Counter

Russian warships, including what appears to be a nuclear-powered submarine, have made port in Cuba – just 90 miles or so from the U.S....

The State of Argentina’s ‘Transformation’

Argentine President Javier Milei will not be commemorating his country’s revolution on May 25 as originally planned. At the beginning of the year, he...

Mexico Considers a New Foreign Policy Path

On June 2, Mexican voters will go to the polls to select their next president. At a time when the dominant geopolitical players around...

Don’t Expect Too Much From Venezuela’s Elections

The Venezuelan opposition has unexpectedly united around a single candidate: Edmundo Gonzalez. And though this is good news for a movement that has long...

How Different Countries Respond to Terrorism

The fallout from Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage through Israel and the March 22 massacre at Crocus City Hall near Moscow are dreadful reminders of...

In Upcoming Elections, Mexico Weighs Its Political Future

The biggest question facing Mexico in the upcoming presidential election is how the country can balance democratic governance while also supporting strong centralized authority....

No One Wants Responsibility for Haiti

Though Washington is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, strained trade relations with China and a potential regional conflict in the Middle East, U.S....

Against Russian Allies in Latin America, the US Makes Its Moves

Last week, Russia laid out a broad strategy and list of priorities for key partners in Latin America. The announcement was precipitated by two...

Washington Remains Committed to Venezuela’s Transition

It’s no secret that the United States wants regime change in Venezuela. Since 2019, Washington has intensified its efforts toward that end by boosting...

The Big Picture of Mexican Exports

Mexico’s economy made headlines late last week when the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that, for the first time in more...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

How Mexico Plans to Reclaim Its Economy

In Mexico, security and economic recovery are intertwined. Politicians and citizens alike understand that the country’s powerful criminal groups threaten both, and though they...

2024 Annual Forecast: Latin America

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

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Colonial governance, production systems and transportations routes heavily shaped the economic and political development of the region well in to its post-colonial era of independence.

The Western Hemisphere has been dominated by the United States since the start of the 20th Century.

South America has struggled to produce a regional leader partly because no single country embodies the necessary qualities to become one. Brazil has the most potential, thanks to the size of its of territory, population, natural resource deposits and economy. Argentina is a counterweight to Brazilian influence in.

The modern governments are actually young and relatively inexperienced democracies. They are still refining their social contracts with their citizens.

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Required Reads: The Americas

From our Forecast...

The U.S. will rely on public-private efforts to secure its influence in the region. It will also welcome economic engagements from allied nations like Japan or South Korea.

Americas in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Iran’s President-elect Outlines Vision, Hamas Reacts to Israeli Strikes

Pezeshkian's priorities. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian outlined his strategic vision for the country in an article for the Tehran Times. He emphasized the importance...

Searching for a Cause

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The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should...

Closing the Darien Gap

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(click to enlarge) Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to Panama’s national...

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