German Bank at Risk of Default

July 11, 2016 How the bank proceeds will test Germany’s commitment to the bail-in approach.

EU Leaves Trade Deal Approval to Members


July 5, 2016 This shift indicates member states are taking back control over key decisions from the bloc.

Turkey Attack Linked to Islamic State in Central Asia

June 30, 2016 Uzbek and Kyrgyz suicide bombers show that IS has increased its influence in the volatile region.

Brexit’s Impact on Italian Banks

June 27, 2016 The Italian government’s response to the crisis so far has been limited by EU regulations.

The EU Capitulates

June 25, 2016 The bloc’s members have conceded that further integration may not be desirable.

Now Is the Time to Invent Another Europe

June 24, 2016 Brexit may have a spillover effect in the rest of the EU.

Euroskeptic Party Makes Big Gains in Italian Election

June 20, 2016 Voters are frustrated by the country’s economic problems and relationship with the EU.

Iraqi Army Pushes Ahead in Fallujah

June 17, 2016 IS’ retreat from the city will not weaken its control over its core territory.

Update on Major Forecasts

June 6, 2016 Developments in Germany, China and Kazakhstan indicate our forecast is on track.

Turkey and the US Converging on Syria

May 23, 2016 The Americans are hoping the Turks will play a larger role in Syria.

Chinese Power Struggles

May 10, 2016 President Xi Jinping faces a potential challenger while trying to consolidate power.