From the Desk of George Friedman

The myth of disengagement derives from American rhetoric and not American actions.

Perhaps this time is different.

The crisis is part of a systemic problem that rapidly emerging powers frequently encounter.

In the span of 40 days, the post-Cold War optimism was crushed.

If Germany wants the strategic partnership to continue, it must become a strategic partner.

There are more important issues to attend to first.

The American president was not restrained by his advisers, but domestic politics imposes its own limits.

All presidential doctrines represent a consistent end imposed by necessity.

The United States didn’t fully form until after the Civil War, which turned at the Battle of Gettysburg.

The missing piece is where Germany is going to find productivity gains.

Disagreements over immigration threaten the ruling coalition.

It’s all about creating illusions and convincing others that they’re real.