HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

The Wagner Group and Russia’s New General

Moscow has relieved its current general in Ukraine, placing him under the staff of his successor, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. In a way, this makes sense – he can help the new commander find his place – but if he works toward Gerasimov’s failure, it could create problems in morale. The arrangement is odd, but if […]

China and the Philippines

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited President Xi Jinping in China, where they agreed to cooperate in peace and security operations and...

Putting the World in Perspective

In working on GPF’s Annual Forecast recently, I was looking for ways to measure national power and differentiate countries with large mouths from countries...

The State of Play in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine seems permanent. Neither side appears capable of destroying the opposing force or articulating what it would take to reach a...

Two Holidays

Editor’s note: As we approach the end of the year, now is the perfect time to reflect on what the holiday season means to...

The Effectiveness of an Air War

The Russians have initiated a concentrated air attack on Ukraine focused on the use of drones. The target is civilian and industrial infrastructure, primarily...

On Jet Lag

As I mentioned to some of you in our ClubGPF discussion this week, Meredith and I spent the past six weeks traveling. We went...

Kosovo Again

There have been skirmishes between armed ethnic Serb protesters and Kosovo police. The reason is that a while ago, Kosovo ordered that drivers surrender...

Remembering Pearl Harbor and America First

This week was the anniversary of Pearl Harbor, an attack the United States thought impossible. Common sense dictated that Japan lacked the military sophistication...

Peace Accords

Russia has accepted Washington’s invitation to engage in peace talks over the war in Ukraine. Both, of course, have reservations. Russia’s is that it...

From the Emirates to Mars

As you receive this, we are on a flight to the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi is hosting a meeting on space flight, and...

Eurasia in Crisis

Demonstrations against Beijing’s zero-COVID policy have surged in the past week, with people voicing their frustration at not only the lockdown measures but also...

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