HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Forecasting Time

George Friedman - October 26, 2021

Around November each year, we at GPF begin our forecasting process for the coming year. In a real sense, we are always forecasting, as...

In Search of the Normal

George Friedman - October 22, 2021

I have spent the past few weeks obsessing over the apocalypse of disappearing workers, lost Christmas presents, the pandemic that will not end, and...

Supply Chains: Our Parachute Moment

George Friedman - October 19, 2021

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I’m writing about supply chains again. Ekaterina Zolotova and Phillip Orchard can explain why Russian-Chinese maneuvers...

Forecasting and Living

George Friedman - October 15, 2021

I started writing a book in 2015 that would eventually have the title “The Storm Before the Calm.” In it, I identified a series...

Explanations for the Labor Shortage

George Friedman - October 12, 2021

The current breakdown of the global supply chain threatens to change the future of the world. If this worsens, the fabric of the global...

Beyond Bed, Bath & Beyond’s Supply Chains

George Friedman - October 8, 2021

Last week, Bed, Bath & Beyond stock was at $24 per share. It closed on Wednesday at $14. As an expert in markets, I...

China’s Economic Crisis and Its Foreign Policy

George Friedman - October 5, 2021

China has reached a critical point that many countries often reach and that, however painful, is cleansing in the long term. Consider what happened...

Apocalypse Then

George Friedman - October 1, 2021

Sixty years ago, almost to the day, the Soviet Union detonated a 50-megaton nuclear bomb, the largest discharged ever before or since, vastly dwarfing...

Germany, Merkel and the Danger of Self-Confidence

George Friedman - September 28, 2021

Germany held an election to replace Angela Merkel, who led the German government for 16 years – through much of the implementation of the...

How the Global Economy Works, or Seems To

George Friedman - September 24, 2021

There is an interesting pattern that takes place in the global system. A nation emerges that is able to produce industrial products at low...

Why Australia Spurned France

George Friedman - September 21, 2021

The decision by the Australian government to join a U.S.-British consortium to help construct a nuclear submarine capability enraged France, whose previous efforts to...