HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Adam Smith, Economics, Finance and Geopolitics

Adam Smith defined how we think about free markets. His guiding principle was, famously, the invisible hand – a mystical force or the hand...

The Geopolitics of Tariffs

There are two analytic principles worth repeating before delving into the raft of tariffs the Trump administration issued last week. The first is that...

How the US Forced Russia’s Failure

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter...

A New Asian Bloc in the Making?

Senior officials from China, South Korea and Japan will soon meet in Tokyo to try to establish a more formal relationship, replete with security...

Engineering an End to the Ukraine War

When the United States entered talks with North Vietnam near the end of the Vietnam War, it hadn’t been militarily defeated, but it had...

A Personal Explanation of Why I Don’t Vote

I must confess that I have not voted in an election, other than local ones, since I left my life in academia and government...

The Ukraine War and the Consequences for Russia

I have come under criticism lately from those who challenge my view that Russia is in decline and is not a threat for the...

Israel’s Intelligence Failure

Hamas' attack on Oct. 7, 2023, was not Israel’s first intelligence failure. In the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Israel was surprised by Egypt and Syria's...

Morality in Geopolitics

The negotiations over a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war bring to light an uncomfortable truth: In geopolitics, ethics tend to be coincidental, not...

Speculating on the Summit in Saudi Arabia

At its heart, Geopolitical Futures is a forecasting company. But before we forecast, we analyze. And before we analyze, we speculate. We rarely publish...

Russia-US Negotiations Open the Next Phase Of Restructuring the World

From 1945 until the early 1990s, the global order was based on the hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was...

America’s Sixth Socio-Economic Cycle

In my books “The Next 100 Years” and “The Storm Before the Calm,” I introduced a model of U.S. history consisting of political cycles...

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