The US Weighs Its Options in the South China Sea

The quiet standoff in the region appears to be entering a new phase.

Southeast Asia: The Sum of Its Parts

July 20, 2017 Geography dictated that the region would be a loose affiliation of disconnected states, not a coherent bloc.

The Hype and the Reality of the EMP Threat

Under what scenarios would a country like North Korea launch a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse attack?

How Brazil Outgrew Mercosur

Years of dysfunction in the trade bloc are restricting Brazil’s global ambitions, and it needs a way out.

France and Germany: The Arbiters of European Peace

Sept. 21, 2017 When the strategies of Paris and Berlin change, so too will the institutions that pacified the Continent.

South Africa: A State With Many Nations

Aug. 24, 2017 The country is too bogged down in its own domestic issues to become the regional leader it could be.

The Future of Europe After Brexit

June 29, 2016 The Continent is facing a new reality and a dysfunctional union.

In Xi’s China, the Communist Party Tightens Its Grip on Power

Trying to control the Chinese government machinery too tightly raises the risk of losing control of it altogether.

The Crude Math of Geopolitical Risk


The price of oil isn’t arrived at rationally.

The Predictive Power of Demography

History suggests the conventional wisdom about demographics and national power may be wrong.

Putin’s Strategy to Maintain Power

Aug. 11, 2016 The president needs to fix the economy to ensure support from the Russian people.

Trump and the Future of US Foreign Policy

Nov. 11, 2016 Will the new president change the U.S.’ trajectory?