On March 29, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a letter declaring the United Kingdom’s intention to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union and withdraw from the EU. Going against most mainstream predictions, Geopolitical Futures believes that Brexit will not have a dramatic impact on the U.K. economy for two reasons: the country’s shifting economic structure and its decreased dependence on the EU market. We conclude that continental Europe (particularly Germany) needs the U.K. as a trading partner more than the U.K. needs continental Europe. We predict that this reality will lead to an agreement between the EU and the U.K. to maintain an easy flow of trade. At the same time, we predict that the U.K. will continue to increase its trade with fellow Commonwealth of Nations countries while also investing in its strategic relationship with the United States.
The U.K. joined the EU after losing its empire, a time when it needed new markets for its e