Geopolitical Futures

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Calm Before the Storm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.

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Daily Memo: Cease-Fires on Battlefields and Trade Wars

Trade deal details leaked. The details of the “phase one” trade deal expected to be inked this week by Chinese and U.S. trade delegations in D.C. are starting to leak. According to Reuters, the South China Morning Post and others, China will agree to purchase some $200 billion in U.S. goods per year, including $75 billion worth of manufactured goods, $50 billion in energy, $40 billion of farm products, and between $35 billion and $40 billion worth of services. The U.S., in exchange, is expected to lower the 15 percent tariffs it imposed earlier this year on $120 billion in Chinese goods to 7.5 percent and continue to hold off on staggering new 25 percent tariffs it had threatened to impose in December. All other existing U.S. tariffs will remain in place, and the deal is not expected to touch on the biggest sources of bilateral tension, particularly state support for Chinese firms. As always, the devil will be in the details, and there are two things to watch for in the final text. One is the language on enforcement. The U.S. has struggled to come up with ways acceptable to Beijing to ensure that China makes good on its […]

Real Clear World: For Turkey, a New Chapter in an Old Rivalry

With such significant geopolitical shifts emerging in the Eastern Mediterranean, let's take stock of its naval landscape: the players involved, their capabilities, their restraints and, most important, their intentions....

Daily Memo: Taiwan’s Elections, Iran’s Protests

Voters rebuke China while new protests take place in Iran.

TurkStream: A New Route to Europe for Russian Gas

The pipeline was inaugurated this week in Istanbul.

Daily Memo: Downed Planes and Failed Cease-fires

The world continues to react to tensions in the Middle East.

Live Discussion: Critical Events in the Middle East

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