AI’s Built-In Vulnerabilities

Scarcity and energy are potential long-term problems.

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AI's Growing Demand on U.S. Energy

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The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vasts amounts of energy, and that it is therefore particularly vulnerable to shocks in energy supply and demand. The United States cannot fully capitalize on AI’s benefits if it can’t generate enough energy to fuel it. This is no small task considering much of America’s infrastructure is old and in need of repair. Even if the U.S. could generate enough energy to power data centers today, it couldn’t guarantee secure and reliable transmission as demand on aging systems increases.

Moreover, data centers themselves are concentrated in the hands of the U.S. government and a few select tech firms. Smaller companies developing AI do not have the capital to build their own infrastructure, so they need to rent resources from the bigger players. Until grids can be built to handle projected supply, these companies will compete with consumers for supply, which, in turn, will put upward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.