It’s easy for people who make a living predicting the future to be seduced by the unassailability of their predictions. And it’s understandable why this would be the case. A prediction can be wrong and, in being wrong, can undermine the credibility of the person who issued it. But there are worse things than being wrong, like being unaccountable. Without accountability, forecasters are nothing more than false prophets, baking into their worldview just enough truth to seem believable but not enough to ever be proved wrong. Without accountability, the predictions determine the process – and not the other way around.
We at GPF believe we have a responsibility to inform our readers how are forecasts fare throughout the year and, if they fare poorly, to correct any mistakes we may have made by updating our forecasts.
With that in mind, we present our mid-term report card on the 2017 forecast, which we published last December. Below is a graphic with a condensed v