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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

Introduction

It’s easy for people who make a living predicting the future to be seduced by the unassailability of their predictions. And it’s understandable why this would be the case. A prediction can be wrong and, in being wrong, can undermine the credibility of the person who issued it. But there are worse things than being wrong, like being unaccountable. Without accountability, forecasters are nothing more than false prophets, baking into their worldview just enough truth to seem believable but not enough to ever be proved wrong. Withou...

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