The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
United States: The U.S. yield curve, which measures the spread between short-term and long-term debt issued by the United States, is flattening. Some large institutional investors are moving to safer securities in exchange for lower returns. Our 2017 forecast said that by end of year the first signs of a cyclical recession in the U.S. would emerge, and this is a big sign. We need to look into why the yield curve is flattening, whether any debt asset classes particularly vulnerable right now, and what the global ramifications of a recession would be.
Russia, U.S.: A Russian presidential aide and a U.S. spec