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Watch List: Jan. 11, 2017

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  • Last updated: January 11
  • Total word count: 302 words

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The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.

Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.

  • Turkey: The Turkish economy continues to struggle. The lira continued its plunge today, despite efforts by the Turkish Central Bank to halt the slide by injecting $1.5 billion into the market yesterday. In addition, Turkey’s recently released manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed 2016 figures were significantly down, continuing a trend of contraction in manufacturing. We need a better read on Turkey’s economy and how these economic woes affect Turkish power.
  • China: On Jan. 9, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily featured an article about a political commissar of a division who was recently demoted to political commissar of a smaller brigade. The article emphasized the willingness and good spirits with which the officer accepted the demotion. The South China Morning Post says in an analysis that a number of new PLA demotions and restructurings will happen in 2017, as President Xi Jinping’s military reforms continue and broaden. The PLA Daily article reveals one of China’s concerns regarding its reforms. We need to watch for any tension within the PLA related to cuts, demotions or restructuring.
  • Nigeria: The Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers has begun a nationwide strike that is affecting filling stations and oil tankers, as well as seven crude flow stations in the Niger Delta. The strike is planned for three days and involves 10,000 workers. Let’s see if there is any potential for a serious disruption in Nigerian oil exports as a result of this domestic instability.