Crisis In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine isn’t just a Ukrainian affair. It has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global landscape. In some ways it already has: Germany is rearming, NATO has awakened, commodities prices are through the roof, and Russia is increasingly isolated. The extent to which the global order changes will depend largely on how long the conflict drags out.

Recent Analysis: Ukraine

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Daily Memo: Secret Israel-Syria Meeting, UK-French Nuclear Coordination

Israel-Syria deal. Details have emerged of a secret meeting in Abu Dhabi between Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s National Security Council, and Syrian President...

Daily Memo: Kurdish Disarmament, Chinese Espionage

PKK's transition. The jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, officially declared the group’s armed struggle against Turkey over in a...

Daily Memo: Unprecedented Taiwan Drills, US Cuts Some Ukraine Arms Shipments

Simulated invasion. Taiwan will conduct its largest military exercises in history next week, simulating a Chinese blockade and invasion of the island. More than...

Strategic Options as US-Russia Talks Stall

U.S.-Russia talks over a settlement in Ukraine have largely stalled. On June 16, Moscow announced that Washington had unilaterally canceled the next round of...

Daily Memo: Relief for Syria, Support for Russia

Sanctions reprieve. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order lifting some sanctions against Syria. The White House said it would continue to monitor...

Daily Memo: Israel-Syria Talks, US Mediation

Peace deal. Israel and Syria are reportedly in talks on signing a peace agreement by the end of this year. Under the deal, Israel...

Trump’s Diplomatic Model

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U.S. President Donald Trump has developed a clear model for exercising diplomacy. He begins by making demands of other nations, then calls for negotiations....

Iran Conflict Puts Trans-Atlantic Ties to the Test

Fresh off a G7 meeting that exposed deep disagreements between the U.S. and Europe over trade and multilateralism, leaders of NATO countries are gathering...

Latest Posts

Podcasts

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

FREE
The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?

George Friedman: What’s Next for Russia, Ukraine and Europe?

FREE
The US-Ukraine minerals deal is done but a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is seemingly out of reach. Now the US is looking to scale back its involvement in mediating an end to the conflict. So what's next for the war in Ukraine? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman considers how the fighting might end, why Vladimir Putin might be running out of room, and why Eastern Europe is now the pivot point for European defense.

George Friedman: Why Putin Has Lost the War in Ukraine

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After Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Oval Office bust up, you might think the war in Ukraine is going rather well for Vladimir Putin. But, according to Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman, the Russian president has already lost the war. Tune in to this new podcast from Geopolitical Futures as Friedman explains Russia’s failure, why he thinks Trump is buttering up Putin, and what he thinks of the press conference heard round the world and the decision to pause U.S. military aid for Ukraine.

Daily Memo: Russia’s Economic Outlook, Syria Talks

Russian economics. Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said another interest rate hike in December is possible, after the bank raised the key rate...

Daily Memo: Developments in Syria

Diplomatic efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts about the situation in Syria, where rebels (including...

Videos

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

FREE
The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?

George Friedman: What’s Next for Russia, Ukraine and Europe?

FREE
The US-Ukraine minerals deal is done but a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is seemingly out of reach. Now the US is looking to scale back its involvement in mediating an end to the conflict. So what's next for the war in Ukraine? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman considers how the fighting might end, why Vladimir Putin might be running out of room, and why Eastern Europe is now the pivot point for European defense.

George Friedman Reacts to Comments: Putin’s Weakness, Trump’s Strategy, and NATO’s Future

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George Friedman returns to the Mauldin Economics' Global Macro Update to explain why Russia cannot realistically wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the current flurry of activity in the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.

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