Crisis In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine isn’t just a Ukrainian affair. It has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global landscape. In some ways it already has: Germany is rearming, NATO has awakened, commodities prices are through the roof, and Russia is increasingly isolated. The extent to which the global order changes will depend largely on how long the conflict drags out.

Recent Analysis: Ukraine

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Daily Memo: China Issues Peculiar Airspace Restrictions, Oil Cartel Raises Quotas

Unusual restrictions. China has imposed unusual airspace restrictions along parts of its coast from March 27 to May 6, covering zones from the Yellow...

Hormuz and the Slow-Burn Fertilizer Supply Shock

Oil and gas are not the only critical commodities shut in by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz....

Daily Memo: Trump Questions NATO

End of an era? In an interview published by the Telegraph on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to pull the United States out...

Daily Memo: US-Saudi Ties, Israeli Plans for Lebanon

Nuclear cooperation. The White House last month sent a report to Congress laying out the case for sharing nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg...

Daily Memo: Mediation Efforts, Oil Supplies for Cuba

Brokering peace? The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia held two days of talks in Islamabad on Sunday on possible ways to...

The Future of War Is Here

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In my book “The Future of War,” which was published in 1996, I wrote that the future of warfare would be based on unmanned...

Daily Memo: US and Iran Bolster Forces

Deployment. The United States is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported, despite signals from the...

How Iran Is Repricing Geography

Last week, the International Maritime Organization submitted a proposal to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf that’s modeled on the Black Sea grain initiative,...

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Podcasts

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Frontline In Russia’s War Against the West

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Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments.

George Friedman on Putin’s NATO Provocations and Poland’s Emerging Power

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Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years.

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

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The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?

Daily Memo: Russia’s Economic Outlook, Syria Talks

Russian economics. Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said another interest rate hike in December is possible, after the bank raised the key rate...

Daily Memo: Developments in Syria

Diplomatic efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts about the situation in Syria, where rebels (including...

Videos

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Frontline In Russia’s War Against the West

FREE
Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments.

George Friedman on Putin’s NATO Provocations and Poland’s Emerging Power

FREE
Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years.

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

FREE
The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?