Crisis In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine isn’t just a Ukrainian affair. It has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global landscape. In some ways it already has: Germany is rearming, NATO has awakened, commodities prices are through the roof, and Russia is increasingly isolated. The extent to which the global order changes will depend largely on how long the conflict drags out.

Recent Analysis: Ukraine

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Daily Memo: Russia-India Ties, Putin’s Invitation

Plane cooperation. Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. and India’s Hindustan Aeronautics signed an agreement pledging cooperation in the production of the Superjet 100. Under the...

Daily Memo: Ukraine Peace Talks, Trade Uncertainty

Terms of a deal. The Trump administration has reportedly made clear to Ukrainian officials that U.S. security guarantees would depend on Kyiv’s willingness to...

The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War

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Representatives from the United States, Russia and Ukraine held talks over the weekend in Dubai on ending the war in Ukraine. There’s evidence to...

Daily Memo: On Reviving Ukraine Talks

Renewed dialogue. Ukraine, Russia and the United States will hold talks in Abu Dhabi on Friday, the first trilateral dialogue since Russia’s full-scale invasion...

Daily Memo: US Drops Tariff Threat Over Greenland

Backtracking on Greenland. Following talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not impose new tariffs on European countries...

Outgrowing Old Alliance Behavior

Though the Cold War is over, there are a variety of Cold War-era alliance structures that have continued to shape international relations. NATO –...

2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World

Global In 2025, we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had had...

Daily Memo: Hamas Disarmament, Venezuelan Oil

Next steps. Hamas has privately signaled that it is ready to disarm, two U.S. officials said after Washington's announcement on Wednesday of the opening...

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Podcasts

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Frontline In Russia’s War Against the West

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Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments.

George Friedman on Putin’s NATO Provocations and Poland’s Emerging Power

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Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years.

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

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The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?

Daily Memo: Russia’s Economic Outlook, Syria Talks

Russian economics. Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, said another interest rate hike in December is possible, after the bank raised the key rate...

Daily Memo: Developments in Syria

Diplomatic efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts about the situation in Syria, where rebels (including...

Videos

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Frontline In Russia’s War Against the West

FREE
Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments.

George Friedman on Putin’s NATO Provocations and Poland’s Emerging Power

FREE
Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years.

Should Europe Fear Russia? George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu from Romania

FREE
The U.S. decision to recuse itself from European security has created something of a crisis on the continent. America wants European countries to pick up their own defense spending and focus on their own region, following Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. So what’s the feeling in Europe about the risks countries there face from Russia? How are they navigating those threats? And do Americans and Europeans see them in the same way?