Tracking Changes in Global Demographics

Unexpectedly rapid declines in fertility suggest the population will peak this century.

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Global Population Review | 2024
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The latest edition of the U.N. World Population Prospects covers changes in demographic data after the COVID-19 pandemic. Life expectancy is rising, contributing to population growth, especially in developed countries. Despite falling fertility rates globally – down by one child per woman on average since 1990 – migration now plays a key role in sustaining population levels, particularly in developed regions. Increased international migration, driven by eased COVID-19 restrictions and geopolitical instability, is crucial for maintaining population size in many European and North American countries.

But while immigration helps the economy, it also risks social friction due to cultural clashes, forcing governments to balance the need for population growth with potential public resistance. Developed nations face tough decisions about supporting or limiting migration as other demographic solutions dwindle.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.