Originally produced on July 25, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC
In my book The Next 100 Years, I argued that Turkey is going to become a major regional power. Recent events would seem at odds with this prospect. But in fact, they confirm it.
Emerging as a regional power puts great pressure on a nation. The shift in the external reality forces shifts internally as well. The result is what we have seen so far in Turkey: a clash between rival factions with diverse visions, a coup of some sort, and for now, a dictatorship.
Rising power in the world flows from greater domestic strength. But it feeds back into the internal system and creates strain on social and political fault lines. We can see examples of this throughout history.
How the US and Japan Emerged as Global Powers
The Mexican-American War turned the US into the leading regional power in North America. The war also spurred the early stages of industrialization. Railroads, the telegraph, and v