Russia’s Hybrid War in the Republic of Moldova

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New Strategy Center published a new study that analyzes the hybrid war waged by Russia against the Republic of Moldova. In the context of large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova is the victim of a complex hybrid war, carried out by the Kremlin on multiple levels. The Republic of Moldova, is now led by the most pro-European government in its history, which aims to remove the country from Moscow’s influence, especially in the political, energy, and informational spheres, causing a strong reaction from Russia.

The first two chapters of the paper focus on the situation in the separatist region of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia, areas where Moscow maintains a strong influence. Chisinau will have to find new ways of dialogue with Tiraspol, given that the 5+2 negotiation format is no longer viable, and the elections in Gagauzia this year are important because they will appoint the future leader from Comrat, a moderate politician who can to manage the relationship with the Chisinau authorities and not to follow the destabilizing actions orchestrated by Russia.

The study also analyzes the main levers used by Moscow to destabilize and control the Republic of Moldova, as a part of the Russian hybrid war. Energy dependence, economic pressure, control over some parties, the influence of oligarchs, propaganda and disinformation, the role of the Church canonically subordinate to Russia are carefully analyzed.

For this study, the authors used information from open sources, as well as relevant information obtained as a result of a documentation visit organized by the New Strategy Center in the Republic of Moldova in January 2023.

The study lists as its authors George Scutaru, CEO of NSC and former National Security Advisor to the Romanian President, Marcu Solomon, Ecaterina Dadiverina and Diana Baroian, experts at NSC.

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