Risks to Global Trade

Trade growth is expected to slow in 2023.

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Global Trade Update
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In 2022, global trade reached a record $32 trillion. However, the recovery in trade has been uneven, and in the fourth quarter, world trade contracted in most regions, led by Russia and China.

International bodies like the World Trade Organization and the United Nations agree that 2023 will see a slowdown in trade growth. They cite inflation, commodity prices and rising interest rates, as well as the war in Ukraine. Potential positive factors include lower shipping costs and increased demand for services.

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.