Monthly Brief
Pressure Builds on Supply Chains, Financial Risks Proliferate
Multiple indexes of supply chain strain are approaching levels last seen during the pandemic. Vulnerabilities in private credit, politicization of the global financial safety net and a new generation of AI-powered tools are creating severe risks to the global financial system.
Feature
Executive Summary
Regional Outlook
George Friedman on Geoeconomics
Monthly Recap
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Changes in the Defense Industry
Digital infrastructure and energy systems are becoming core vulnerabilities in modern defense, raising operational risks and creating new opportunities for investment in secure, self-sustained and distributed technologies.
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China and Taiwan: Risk and Opportunity
Tensions between China and Taiwan are intensifying through a mix of coercion and selective engagement at a politically sensitive moment. This highlights a transition from a static geopolitical rivalry to a more fluid and multilayered contest, creating a more volatile but opportunity-rich environment for businesses.
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Redistributing Risk in Europe
The shift in attention from the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) to the BIF (Britain, Italy and France) signals that the financial risk moving into Europe’s core economies is raising borrowing costs and fiscal pressure while creating targeted opportunities in higher-yield debt, infrastructure financing and energy transition investments.
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The AI Talent Race
A credible reverse brain drain toward China seems to be emerging, gradually weakening a key U.S. advantage in attracting top AI talent.
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Bad News and Good News for the Russian Economy
Despite five years of war in Ukraine and non-stop sanctions, the Russian economy has avoided collapse. But isolation, rising inflation, tight central bank policies, insufficient import substitution and ongoing Ukrainian attacks have taken a toll on the economy – and on public opinion.