Israel/Palestine Conflict

The fighting that erupted between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 was no ordinary flare-up. It shattered the relative calm observed in the Middle East over the past few of years – a result of Israel’s efforts to reclaim its international status; of Iran’s efforts to reconcile with its neighbors; and of new alignments slowly forming among erstwhile enemies. Regional leadership and power dynamics are directly at stake, as is the potential shape of the Middle East itself.

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The State of the Israeli-Gaza Conflict

Analysis George Friedman -
The origins of the modern Arab-Israeli conflict are pretty well known. Gaza, the narrow strip of land running to the Sinai Peninsula, was originally...
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The Drumbeat of War in the Middle East

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Threats of impending war have permeated the Middle East since Israel’s establishment in 1948. Though Egypt made peace with Israel in 1978 and Jordan...
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The Eclipse of the Palestinian Question

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Until the 1970s, the Palestinian question had preoccupied the Arab world since the creation of Israel in 1948. Public figures and ordinary Arabs were...
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West Bank Violence Stalls Arab-Israeli Normalization

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Last month, three senior U.S. officials visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories to try to avert a third Palestinian intifada. National Security Adviser Jake...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Israel & Palestine

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Daily Memo: Russia, Turkey Reach Out to Syrian Rebels

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Reaching out. Moscow is in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that led the rebellion that overthrew the Assad regime in Syria,...
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Daily Memo: Ethiopia and Somalia Agree to Squash Feud

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Path to peace? Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to end their feud over Addis Ababa’s signing in January of a port access deal with the...
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Daily Memo: Macron Headed for Warsaw, Russia-China Talks

Americas Geopolitical Futures -
France and Poland. French President Emmanuel Macron will fly to Warsaw on Thursday, reportedly to discuss a plan for a possible European postwar peacekeeping...
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The Weakness of Israel’s Approach to War

FREE
Analysis George Friedman -
The Middle East has broken down into a state of extreme combat. The collapse of the system of governance throughout the region has opened...
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Daily Memo: Belarus’ Nuclear Weapons, Europe’s ‘Crisis of Leadership’

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Belarus and nuclear defense. During a visit to a manufacturing plant in the Belarusian city of Borisov, President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that his country...
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After the Fall of Assad, the Middle East Braces for Unrest

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Jubilant crowds in some of Syria’s biggest and most politically significant cities toppled statues of former President Hafez Assad over the past week, in...
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Daily Memo: Israel Captures Golan Heights, Russia and US in Waiting Mode

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Moving in. Following the overthrow of Bashar Assad’s regime, Israeli forces seized control of the demilitarized Golan Heights buffer zone separating southwestern Syria and...
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Daily Memo: Rebels Advance in Syria

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Advancing to Hama. The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the insurgent group that led the rebellion against Syrian government forces in Aleppo last week,...
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Saudi Arabia Hedges Its Bets

Analysis Ronan Wordsworth -
Last weekend, Saudi Arabia ditched the comprehensive defense pact it had been pursuing with the U.S. in favor of a smaller, more limited military...
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Daily Memo: Assad Seeks Help, French Government Collapses

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Syria's next steps. Following the capture of Aleppo by rebel forces last week, Bashar Assad is now open to proposals by the U.S. and...
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Daily Memo: Implications for Russia in Syrian Upheaval

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Movements in Tartus. Russia’s naval base at Syria’s port of Tartus is reportedly under increasing threat as opposition forces gain ground against the Assad...
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Daily Memo: Developments in Syria

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Diplomatic efforts. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts about the situation in Syria, where rebels (including...
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Audio & Video

What’s Next For Iran? ClubGPF Bonus with Kamran Bokhari

FREE
Podcast Geopolitical Futures -
Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and war-making capabilities has paved the way for a massive altering of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. After decades on the offensive, Iran has suffered a major setback in its strategy for the region. GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari joined host Christian Smith on our recent Podcast+ episode for ClubGPF members to discuss what’s next for Iran, its proxies, and the Middle East at large.
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Shadows of Power: George Friedman on Russia, the Middle East, and the Rise of Non-State Actors

FREE
Video Geopolitical Futures -
At GPF we have a distinct method for looking at the world, and every day we see this model play out in real time, like in the current conflicts in the Middle East. In this ClubGPF live discussion, Chairman George Friedman discusses the relationship between current conflicts and the dangers of non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas.
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