Israel/Palestine Conflict

The fighting that erupted between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 was no ordinary flare-up. It shattered the relative calm observed in the Middle East over the past few of years – a result of Israel’s efforts to reclaim its international status; of Iran’s efforts to reconcile with its neighbors; and of new alignments slowly forming among erstwhile enemies. Regional leadership and power dynamics are directly at stake, as is the potential shape of the Middle East itself.

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The State of the Israeli-Gaza Conflict

Analysis George Friedman -
The origins of the modern Arab-Israeli conflict are pretty well known. Gaza, the narrow strip of land running to the Sinai Peninsula, was originally...
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The Drumbeat of War in the Middle East

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Threats of impending war have permeated the Middle East since Israel’s establishment in 1948. Though Egypt made peace with Israel in 1978 and Jordan...
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The Eclipse of the Palestinian Question

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Until the 1970s, the Palestinian question had preoccupied the Arab world since the creation of Israel in 1948. Public figures and ordinary Arabs were...
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West Bank Violence Stalls Arab-Israeli Normalization

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Last month, three senior U.S. officials visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories to try to avert a third Palestinian intifada. National Security Adviser Jake...
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Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

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Recent Analysis: Israel & Palestine

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Daily Memo: Philippines Reaffirms Maritime Claims, World Leaders React to US Election

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Rocking the boat. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two laws that reasserted the limits of the country’s maritime and resource claims, including in...
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The US Election and Its Impact on the Middle East

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
Editor’s note: Yesterday was election day in the United States. We at GPF tend to avoid the pontifications and predictions of electoral politics, not...
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Daily Memo: Ukraine-Poland Spat, North Korea’s Latest Test-Launch

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Rising tensions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trying to “drag Poland into the war with Russia,” Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Jawkowski said. Jawkowski...
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The Illusion of Palestinian Statehood

Analysis Hilal Khashan -
The idea of a two-state solution was a Palestinian concept that gradually gained international support. Its broad outlines began to take shape in the...
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Daily Memo: Iran Considers Its Options

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Iran’s verbal response. Iran has begun to respond to the Israeli attack, albeit with words only. Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to the supreme leader...
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War Without Decision: In the Context of the Middle East – Part 1

FREE
Analysis George Friedman -
The Middle East is in disarray, and it’s unclear if it can stabilize itself on its own. In many cases, a nation’s military can...
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Daily Memo: Iranian Response, Russian-North Korean Contacts

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Tehran's next move. Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in retaliation for airstrikes on Iranian military sites last weekend, according to...
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Daily Memo: Taliban’s Challenges, Israel’s Cease-Fire Plans

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Losing grip. The Taliban are facing increasing resistance in Afghanistan that could undermine their ability to remain in power, according to the Asia Times....
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In Iran, Israeli Attacks Create the Ultimate Dilemma

Analysis Kamran Bokhari -
Israel attacked Iran last Friday in a large-scale air assault that struck targets across the country. The implications of the attack – long-feared by...
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Daily Memo: Russia, Ukraine Could Seek Limited Deal

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
Under negotiation. Russia and Ukraine have begun preliminary talks, mediated by Qatar, on stopping attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to the Financial...
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Daily Memo: US-Israel Talks, Iran’s Defense Budget

Analysis Geopolitical Futures -
New order. Israel and the United States are in talks on a deal that would prevent an expanded Israeli ground operation in Lebanon in...
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The Danger of Unfatal Wounds

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Analysis George Friedman -
“If you must wound someone, it is better to kill him.” I’ve encountered some version of this missive throughout the course of my career. And...
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Latest Posts

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Audio & Video

Shadows of Power: George Friedman on Russia, the Middle East, and the Rise of Non-State Actors

FREE
Video Geopolitical Futures -
At GPF we have a distinct method for looking at the world, and every day we see this model play out in real time, like in the current conflicts in the Middle East. In this ClubGPF live discussion, Chairman George Friedman discusses the relationship between current conflicts and the dangers of non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas.
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Israel and Hezbollah Escalation | ClubGPF Podcast+ Bonus with Hilal Khashan

FREE
Podcast Geopolitical Futures -
Will the Israel-Hamas War spread across the region? After months of Hezbollah and the IDF exchanging fire, attacks have escalated in recent weeks. Middle East Analyst Hilal Khashan joined host Christian Smith on our recent Podcast+ episode for ClubGPF members to discuss the conflict at the border, and how realistic a full-scale war might be.
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