Iran Conflict

The U.S. and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28th targeting leadership and military assets. The question is no longer whether force will be used but whether it can be used without opening the door to a conflict that would be difficult to contain. This is the paradox of bargaining with force: It is used to avert war but also brings war closer.

Featured Content

Israel in a New Strategic Era

With the weakening of Iran and its proxies beginning in late 2023, Israel largely neutralized the nonstate threats that had constrained it for decades,...

Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran

War is looming between the United States and Iran at a time when the regime in Tehran is facing its most serious challenges since...

Iran’s Future Hinges on IRGC-Artesh Power-Sharing

The future of Iran hinges on the evolving balance of power between its two parallel military institutions: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the...

The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff

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(click to enlarge) Brent crude prices have risen modestly in recent weeks, climbing into the low $70s after several months of relative stability. The move...

Special Collection on the Middle East

This complete work consists of several dozen essays spread out over 8 parts tackling the region’s conflicts and historical evolution, relating them to contemporary issues. Divided into distinct regions and critical issues, the Special Collection of the Middle East is your source to better understand this volatile region and to be prepared for what comes next.

Recent Analysis: Israel & Palestine

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Daily Memo: Pakistan and Afghanistan Exchange Airstrikes

Escalating fighting. Pakistan on Friday launched airstrikes on neighboring Afghanistan in response to what Islamabad called an “unprovoked” attack by Afghan Taliban forces across...

Daily Memo: Israel and Somaliland, the US and Iran

New representative. Israel announced it is formally accepting the appointment of an ambassador from Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia recognized by Israel in...

Israel in a New Strategic Era

With the weakening of Iran and its proxies beginning in late 2023, Israel largely neutralized the nonstate threats that had constrained it for decades,...

Daily Memo: US Deployments to the Middle East

Buildup. The United States has reportedly deployed more than 150 military aircraft to the Middle East since Feb. 17, when the second round of...

Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran

War is looming between the United States and Iran at a time when the regime in Tehran is facing its most serious challenges since...

Daily Memo: US Preparations for Iran Strike Continue Alongside Negotiations

Strike prep. As a security and nuclear agreement with Iran remains elusive, the United States has deployed significantly more military aircraft at bases in...

George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe

Munich Security Conference and Europe’s Future Feb. 16, 2026 Question: Although the Europeans have some nuclear capability of their own, it is utterly insufficient to dissuade...

Daily Memo: North Korea Launches Party Congress

Changes. North Korea's Workers' Party reshuffled its senior leadership at a congress in Pyongyang this week. Left out of key positions were a number...

Daily Memo: Israel on Alert, African Minerals

Escalation. Israeli security agencies have been placed on high alert amid reports that the U.S. is preparing to launch an attack on Iran. According to...

Daily Memo: Russia-Cuba Talks, Nuclear Weapons in Europe

Long-time allies. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Following their meeting, Lavrov called on...

Daily Memo: Ukrainian Advance, Polish Nuclear Ambitions

Recapturing territory. Ukrainian forces last week took control of 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) of territory from the Russian army, their most successful...

Preparing for the Long War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced European governments to confront a problem they long thought obsolete: sustaining manpower in prolonged, high-intensity war. At the outset...

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Audio & Video

Unrest in Iran: A Tipping Point for the Middle East?

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Widespread anti-government protests in Iran have been growing for weeks now, and the government crackdown has turned deadly. While protests here are not a new phenomenon, many are saying this time things are much different. With the US poised to intervene and the future of the Iranian regime hanging in the balance, this week on the podcast we're taking a look at how the situation is evolving and how it is perceived by the wider region. Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman as well as Geopolitical Futures contributing analyst Kamran Bokhari to break it all down.

Will Trump’s Gaza Plan Work? George Friedman on Israel, Palestine and the Geopolitics of Peace

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Two years ago this week, Hamas' October 7 attacks stunned Israel and the world. And now for the first time there is palpable excitement that the war in Gaza may be on the path to an end. The first part of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan seems to have been agreed by Israel and Hamas, though the plan still faces many hurdles. Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder George Friedman has joined host Christian Smith on this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics to discuss how we got here, whether the plan will work and also why the Gulf states are so important to the plan's success. This interview was recorded on Thursday, October 9th 2025.