In or out of the treaty, the U.S. probably will have about the same capabilities and constraints in the region.

This article is for subscribers only

Join thousands of readers who rely on GPF for clear-eyed geopolitical analysis.

$79 per year Save 27% vs. monthly
✓Full access to all daily analysis & forecasts
✓George Friedman's geopolitical insights
✓2026 Forecast & Special Collection on the Middle East
✓100% reader-supported
Subscribe Now

30-day money-back guarantee

Already a subscriber? Log in

Phillip Orchard
Phillip Orchard
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/author/porchard/
Phillip Orchard is an analyst at Geopolitical Futures. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Orchard spent nearly six years at Stratfor, working as an editor and writing about East Asian geopolitics. He’s spent more than six years abroad, primarily in Southeast Asia and Latin America, where he’s had formative, immersive experiences with the problems arising from mass political upheaval, civil conflict and human migration. Mr. Orchard holds a master’s degree in Security, Law and Diplomacy from the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, where he focused on energy and national security, Chinese foreign policy, intelligence analysis, and institutional pathologies. He also earned a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Texas. He speaks Spanish and some Thai and Lao.