The Global Economy: Commodities Crisis

Two wars are being waged that are dramatically affecting the geopolitical system: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the U.S.-led economic response to it. In some ways, the latter will be the more consequential. 

The global economy was in a precarious place before the invasion, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. The sanctions against Russia, including the removal of many Russian hydrocarbons from the global market, and the blocking of traditional trade routes severely disrupted economic recovery. 

Accordingly, there will be – and indeed there already have been – social crises that will become political crises throughout the world. This will, in turn, necessitate a worldwide economic restructuring that includes quotas on traded goods, diversification of trade partners, and near-shoring projects and initiatives to increase self-sufficiency through increased domestic production. 

New structures create new definitions of what it means to be vulnerable and secure, and thus creates new sources of conflict. At the heart of all this is economic warfare. 

Enclosed is a compendium of analyses that chronicles our coverage of it. It will provide an overview of the many dimensions and factors in play in this incredibly complex battlefield. 

Daily Memo: Chinese Diplomats Meet With Friends and Rivals

Strategic partnership. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in the Russian capital. In a separate meeting with Foreign Minister...

Daily Memo: More Leaks

More leaks. Poland has reported a leak in one of the two branches of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany via...

Daily Memo: Production Cuts

Hostile acts of oil. At a meeting today, OPEC+ announced dramatic cuts in oil production. At as much as 2 million barrels per day,...

Daily Memo: Russian Creativity

Escalation. Referendums were held last week in the nominally Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to see if residents there wanted to...

Immigration, the Economy and the Italian Election

Italy elected a hard-right party in parliamentary elections held over the weekend. The result indicates that Italians are unhappy with the country’s reality. Italy...

Daily Memo: Angsty About Energy

European protests. Some 70,000 residents in Prague took part in a protest to demand the government’s resignation over spiraling energy prices. Protests also broke...

Daily Memo: Russia’s Other Customers

Buying Russian oil. Japan has reportedly resumed importing oil from Russia. Import volumes are still down year-on-year, as Japan brought in just 65 percent...

Daily Memo: Chinese Output and Russian Trade

China data. China’s industrial output for July grew by just 3.8 percent year-on-year, well below the 4.6 percent anticipated by markets. Retail sales reached...

A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

Daily Memo: Commodities Crunch

China responds. The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it will halt military and climate cooperation with the U.S. because of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s...

Daily Memo: Fallout in the Strait, Missiles in the Middle East

Strait talk. During her visit to Taiwan, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the self-ruled island as "one of the freest societies...

Destabilizing Major Powers

The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

Daily Memo: France and the UAE Talk Energy, Russia Dodges Dollars

Energy cooperation. France and the United Arab Emirates signed a strategic agreement on cooperation energy during a visit to Paris by UAE President Sheikh...

Biden in Saudi Arabia: Realpolitik vs. Morality

The war in Ukraine rages on as the United States still wants to prevent Russia from effectively reaching Eastern Europe. To that end, Washington’s...

Daily Memo: Europe Negotiates More Energy From Algeria and Azerbaijan

Algerian energy. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi arrived in Algeria on Monday to negotiate deals to increase energy supplies to Italy, which counts Algeria...

Australia’s Energy Problems Are East Asia’s Energy Problems

Much has been said about how badly the rise in global commodities has affected import-dependent economies – and rightly so. Yet some export-oriented countries...

Daily Memo: The EU’s Latest Russia Sanctions and Possible Gas Deal With Azerbaijan

More sanctions. The European Commission will adopt a seventh package of sanctions against Russia on Friday. It will impose restrictions on imports of Russian...

Saudi Arabia: No Longer a Swing Oil Producer

Last May, the Saudi minister of energy warned that “the world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.” More recently, in a...

Antonia Colibasanu on The John Batchelor Show: The Post Ukraine War Economic Order

How is the war in Ukraine impacting trade and globalization as we go into the second calendar year of the conflict? Antonia Colibasanu joins John Batchelor to discuss the latest and what the economic world order will look like. In the second segment, a discussion on Romania's involvement in the war and the potential for escalation to press back against Russian aggression.

Antonia Colibasanu on The John Batchelor Show: Russia’s Market Economy and Post-War Future

As sanctions are ratcheting up on Russia, are we beginning to see the start of a new world order? Antonia Colibasanu joins John Batchelor to discuss the latest in the global economic war and how Russia will look as it comes out the other side. In the second segment, a discussion on the impacts the Ukraine war is having on European nations like Norway and Malta.

Ekaterina Zolotova on The John Batchelor Show: Russia’s Strategy on Grain Exports

The Black Sea grain corridor, which enabled Ukrainian food to sail from three ports, was extended for another 120 days. GPF's Ekaterina Zolotova joins John Batchelor to discuss Russia's long game on grain exports, including why Moscow did not object to the extension and why it prefers to keep its distance from the deal.

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