The Global Economy: Commodities Crisis

Two wars are being waged that are dramatically affecting the geopolitical system: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the U.S.-led economic response to it. In some ways, the latter will be the more consequential. 

The global economy was in a precarious place before the invasion, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. The sanctions against Russia, including the removal of many Russian hydrocarbons from the global market, and the blocking of traditional trade routes severely disrupted economic recovery. 

Accordingly, there will be – and indeed there already have been – social crises that will become political crises throughout the world. This will, in turn, necessitate a worldwide economic restructuring that includes quotas on traded goods, diversification of trade partners, and near-shoring projects and initiatives to increase self-sufficiency through increased domestic production. 

New structures create new definitions of what it means to be vulnerable and secure, and thus creates new sources of conflict. At the heart of all this is economic warfare. 

Enclosed is a compendium of analyses that chronicles our coverage of it. It will provide an overview of the many dimensions and factors in play in this incredibly complex battlefield. 

A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

Daily Memo: Commodities Crunch

China responds. The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it will halt military and climate cooperation with the U.S. because of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s...

Daily Memo: Fallout in the Strait, Missiles in the Middle East

Strait talk. During her visit to Taiwan, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the self-ruled island as "one of the freest societies...

Destabilizing Major Powers

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The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

Daily Memo: France and the UAE Talk Energy, Russia Dodges Dollars

Energy cooperation. France and the United Arab Emirates signed a strategic agreement on cooperation energy during a visit to Paris by UAE President Sheikh...

Biden in Saudi Arabia: Realpolitik vs. Morality

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The war in Ukraine rages on as the United States still wants to prevent Russia from effectively reaching Eastern Europe. To that end, Washington’s...

Daily Memo: Europe Negotiates More Energy From Algeria and Azerbaijan

Algerian energy. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi arrived in Algeria on Monday to negotiate deals to increase energy supplies to Italy, which counts Algeria...

Australia’s Energy Problems Are East Asia’s Energy Problems

Much has been said about how badly the rise in global commodities has affected import-dependent economies – and rightly so. Yet some export-oriented countries...

Daily Memo: The EU’s Latest Russia Sanctions and Possible Gas Deal With Azerbaijan

More sanctions. The European Commission will adopt a seventh package of sanctions against Russia on Friday. It will impose restrictions on imports of Russian...

Saudi Arabia: No Longer a Swing Oil Producer

Last May, the Saudi minister of energy warned that “the world is running out of energy capacity at all levels.” More recently, in a...

Checking in on the Global Economy

Let’s check in on the global economy. The world is struggling with inflation, even as it continues to mend broken supply chains. The Japanese...

Economies and War

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The American economy, the largest and most dynamic in the world, is a geopolitical issue. And right now, it is in a predictable period...

Diesel Supplies and Food

Diesel supplies appear to be the next casualty of global energy disruptions. In fact, they started the year in a weak position, thanks to...

Arab Food Insecurity and Political Failure

The Arab region, extending from the Persian Gulf in the east to the Atlantic Ocean in the west, faces severe shortages of several staple...

China’s Role in Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Over the past several weeks, Sri Lanka has been experiencing an economic crisis that has brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy. Nearly...

Hungary and Europe’s Energy Puzzle

On April 27, Russia announced that Gazprom stopped sending gas to Bulgaria and Poland after they missed the deadlines Russia set for paying in...

Can Africa Replace Russian Energy in Europe?

Unsurprisingly, the economic war against Russia has created tensions in European energy markets, which are scrambling to find alternate sources from what is still...

How the Ukrainian Battlefield Redefines the World

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The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy to be sure, but that’s not why it has commanded the world’s attention. After all, there...

George Friedman on The John Batchelor Show: Guns, Butter and Ukraine

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Inflation is at record highs as global markets struggle to recover from COVID-19 supply chain bottlenecks and disruptions from the Ukraine war. GPF Chairman George Friedman joins John Batchelor to discuss how the U.S. has been in this position before, and how it might navigate its way out of these crises.

Ekaterina Zolotova on The John Batchelor Show: Lavrov in the Gulf for Oil and Food

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Moscow is looking for allies given its deteriorating trade relationship with its most important partner, the European Union. Will the Kremlin be able to sway Arab states to abandon neutrality and side with Russia? Ekaterina Zolotova joins John Batchelor to discuss Moscow’s diplomacy in energy production and food supplies.

Antonia Colibasanu on KPFA’s Talkies Podcast: Putin’s Economic War

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The Kremlin has prepared to confront the West and its socio-economic model since at least the early 2000s. GPF COO Antonia Colibasanu joins host Kris Welch to discuss her recent article on the ongoing war in Ukraine and particularly Putin's goal of taking advantage of a weak NATO and European Union, following two years of COVID-19 impacts.

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