The Global Economy: Commodities Crisis

Two wars are being waged that are dramatically affecting the geopolitical system: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the U.S.-led economic response to it. In some ways, the latter will be the more consequential. 

The global economy was in a precarious place before the invasion, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. The sanctions against Russia, including the removal of many Russian hydrocarbons from the global market, and the blocking of traditional trade routes severely disrupted economic recovery. 

Accordingly, there will be – and indeed there already have been – social crises that will become political crises throughout the world. This will, in turn, necessitate a worldwide economic restructuring that includes quotas on traded goods, diversification of trade partners, and near-shoring projects and initiatives to increase self-sufficiency through increased domestic production. 

New structures create new definitions of what it means to be vulnerable and secure, and thus creates new sources of conflict. At the heart of all this is economic warfare. 

Enclosed is a compendium of analyses that chronicles our coverage of it. It will provide an overview of the many dimensions and factors in play in this incredibly complex battlefield. 

Eastern Mediterranean Energy Hangs in the Balance of the Israel-Hamas War

As the Israel-Hamas conflict threatens to spread, oil traders are paying a premium for their annual supply of most grades of Middle Eastern crude...

Daily Memo: Polish Protests, Turkish Deployment

Uproar in Poland. Hundreds of thousands of anti-government protesters took to the streets of Warsaw and other cities on Sunday, the 34th anniversary of...

Daily Memo: Russia’s Pacific Fleet on High Alert

Snap drills. Russia’s entire Pacific Fleet was put on high alert on Friday for snap drills in the Far East region. Defense Minister Sergei...

Daily Memo: OPEC+ Agrees to Production Cuts

Oil cuts. OPEC+ countries said on Sunday that they will voluntarily cut oil production from May until the end of the year by a...

Daily Memo: Chinese Diplomats Meet With Friends and Rivals

Strategic partnership. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in the Russian capital. In a separate meeting with Foreign Minister...

Daily Memo: More Leaks

More leaks. Poland has reported a leak in one of the two branches of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany via...

Daily Memo: Production Cuts

Hostile acts of oil. At a meeting today, OPEC+ announced dramatic cuts in oil production. At as much as 2 million barrels per day,...

Daily Memo: Russian Creativity

Escalation. Referendums were held last week in the nominally Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to see if residents there wanted to...

Immigration, the Economy and the Italian Election

Italy elected a hard-right party in parliamentary elections held over the weekend. The result indicates that Italians are unhappy with the country’s reality. Italy...

Daily Memo: Angsty About Energy

European protests. Some 70,000 residents in Prague took part in a protest to demand the government’s resignation over spiraling energy prices. Protests also broke...

Daily Memo: Russia’s Other Customers

Buying Russian oil. Japan has reportedly resumed importing oil from Russia. Import volumes are still down year-on-year, as Japan brought in just 65 percent...

Daily Memo: Chinese Output and Russian Trade

China data. China’s industrial output for July grew by just 3.8 percent year-on-year, well below the 4.6 percent anticipated by markets. Retail sales reached...

A New Phase in the Global Economic War

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn’t just start a ground war in Europe – it opened up what would become a worldwide...

Daily Memo: Commodities Crunch

China responds. The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it will halt military and climate cooperation with the U.S. because of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s...

Daily Memo: Fallout in the Strait, Missiles in the Middle East

Strait talk. During her visit to Taiwan, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi hailed the self-ruled island as "one of the freest societies...

Destabilizing Major Powers

The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the...

Daily Memo: France and the UAE Talk Energy, Russia Dodges Dollars

Energy cooperation. France and the United Arab Emirates signed a strategic agreement on cooperation energy during a visit to Paris by UAE President Sheikh...

Biden in Saudi Arabia: Realpolitik vs. Morality

The war in Ukraine rages on as the United States still wants to prevent Russia from effectively reaching Eastern Europe. To that end, Washington’s...

Geopolitics in the 21st Century | The Rise of Geoeconomics

On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, we continue our subscriber-only limited series Geopolitics in the 21st Century. After the pandemic and war in Ukraine accelerated changes in the world economy and encouraged the weaponization of economics, Senior Analyst Antonia Colibășanu joins host Christian Smith for a discussion on why geoeconomics is set to dominate the 21st century.

Ekaterina Zolotova on The John Batchelor Show: Germany Economy Falls Short

Germany, Europe’s second largest economy, has entered a recession. What are the long- and short- term ramifications within Germany and throughout European and global economies? Ekaterina Zolotova joins John Batchelor to discuss the challenges ahead, including impacts in the Russian auto market.

Antonia Colibasanu on The John Batchelor Show: G-7 and Containment of China

At this year's G-7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, the advanced economies delivered their most detailed articulation yet of a shared position on Beijing. Antonia Colibasanu joined John Batchelor to discuss the event and its implications for addressing China's aggression, and ways to reduce overreliance on China for production of goods all while navigating a global economic war.

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