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Why the US Is Threatening to Send Cluster Bombs to Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden announced last week that Washington will give Ukraine cluster bombs, adding with apparent emotion that the decision was enormously difficult for him to make. In general, presidents don’t make weapons transfer announcements, although on occasion they approve them. Usually, such statements are left to lesser figures in the Defense Department who […]

Where Does Russia Stand Now?

There has been a great deal of talk that the Wagner Group's attempted insurrection over the weekend may have weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin....

Forecasts From ‘The Next 100 Years’: Al-Qaida and China

“The Next 100 Years” is the first book I wrote that was intended to be a serious forecasting book. Others followed, but this perfected...

Starting the New Forecast

It is time to reconsider the past and assess a forecast for the future. The forecasts we make concern the geopolitical system. They are...

A Convocation of Spies

Over the past weekend, major global media outlets revealed that the heads of intelligence of about two dozen countries held a (formerly) secret meeting...

Considering Maskirovka

Soon after Josef Stalin signed a mutual defense pact with Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that Russia was a mystery wrapped...

The Next Phase in the China-US Confrontation

Last week, I wrote about the major expansion of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, Japanese alignment with Taiwan and possible three-way links with South Korea, and...

Shifts in the Western Pacific

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited Washington last week, where he signed what is essentially a collective defense agreement. In doing so, he sealed...

The Russian Mystery

There are too many unknowns to count in the Ukraine war. From the upcoming spring offensive to covert U.S. intelligence operations, mysteries abound. But...

Victory Day

We are a few weeks away from the anniversary of Victory Day, which marks the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany. The annual parade...

The Logic of American Strategy and War

In recent weeks I have focused on the social and economic evolution of the United States. Obviously, we also need to discuss U.S. strategic...

The American Crisis Intensifies

As I ooze back to consciousness after COVID-19 had me in its grip for the past few weeks, it has occurred to me that...

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