The World in 2019: A Year on the Edge

One era is ending and another will soon begin.

The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

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Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

Four Coronavirus Lessons That We Will (or Won’t) Learn

How would we respond differently if another outbreak happened?

Medical, Economic, Social, Military: The State of Play

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A riot broke out in a poor, predominantly Muslim neighborhood north of Paris over the weekend. The immediate cause was a traffic offense and...

Supply Chains and a Novel Path to Conflict

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Though “supply chain” became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One...

Quarantine and the Supply Chain

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The global medical community appears to have devised a strategy for mitigating the coronavirus that depends largely on quarantine, or limiting contact among the...

The Importance of Australia to the United States

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Feb. 3, 2017 Personalities aside, both countries need each other.

The Coming Decline of Global Trade

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(click to enlarge) The World Trade Organization revised its forecast for global trade this year to reflect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic — and...

Drought Hits Australian Wheat Supplies

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Australia, normally a net exporter of wheat, has had to import wheat for the first time since 2007.

Pacific Aid and Allegiances

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In recent weeks, the Solomon Islands' allegiance to Taiwan appeared shaky as mainland China sought to coax the island nation into its camp. The strategically located Pacific Islands are a soft-power battleground between the U.S. and China; here, we take a closer look at the evolution of aid - a key tool for maintaining allegiances - to these islands between 2011 and 2017.

Will the Coronavirus Forge a Brave New World?

Of all the major geopolitical players on the planet, Mother Nature may be the toughest adversary. Nature has neither imperatives nor constraints to guide its behavior. Rather, it operates off general patterns that occur under various conditions. While the patterns provide broad strokes of expected behavior, it strikes mostly randomly. Even predictable phenomena, such as the Atlantic hurricane season, tell us nothing about the magnitude and target of, or potential for, economic damage. A catastrophic Category 5 hurricane that misses major population centers is quickly forgotten; a milder Category 3 hurricane that decimates New Orleans has long-lasting consequences. Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2, was a predictable phenomenon. Modern disease outbreaks allow scientists to detect patterns, even if they cannot precisely predict what, when, where and how an outbreak might occur. For decades, microbiologists and epidemiologists have warned about an influenza pandemic. These occur with some regularity; the previous four were in 1918, 1957, 1968 and 2009. But while public health officials were fixated on the flu, a deadly new virus was percolating in China. By the time the biomedical community fully grasped the severity of the disease, it was too late. It had […]