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Sudan’s Forever War

As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) both lack international legitimacy and have been credibly accused of committing atrocities. Millions of Sudanese civilians have fled north into Egypt or west into Chad, neither of which is well-equipped […]

Daily Memo: EU Migration, Disruptions in Global Shipping

European migration. The European Commission will propose changes to the bloc’s visa regime this month, according to a report by Euractiv. The outlet, citing...

Beijing’s Nervous Resolve Amid Third Plenum

China’s leadership is holding its third plenary session in Beijing this week, one of the most important political meetings of the year. It’s organized...

Daily Memo: More Houthi Attacks, China in the Middle Corridor

Disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched multiple attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Monday. U.S. Central Command reported...

Explaining the China-NATO Spat

NATO recently issued a statement directly accusing China for the first time of supplying weapons to Russia. The alliance urged China to withdraw “all...

Daily Memo: Iran’s President-elect Outlines Vision, Hamas Reacts to Israeli Strikes

Pezeshkian's priorities. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian outlined his strategic vision for the country in an article for the Tehran Times. He emphasized the importance...

Searching for a Cause

The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should...

Daily Memo: Houthi Presence in Iraq, Solomon Island Leader in Beijing

Iraqi connections. Yemen’s Houthi rebels reportedly opened an office in Baghdad. The group apparently indirectly announced the existence of its coordination and communications office,...

US, Panama Mind the Darien Gap

The Darien Gap – once considered little more than a narrow, impenetrable jungle along Colombia’s border with Panama – has slowly become one of...

Daily Memo: Moscow’s Message, China-Russia Naval Drills

Russian response. Russia will develop a military response to the future U.S. deployment of long-range missiles in Germany, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov...

Why Iran’s Establishment Let a Reformist Become President

For the first time in nearly a generation, Iran has elected a reformist who is not a cleric as president. But Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory...

Daily Memo: NATO’s Summit, Orban’s Debrief

NATO developments. At an alliance summit in Washington on Tuesday, several NATO allies pledged to send Ukraine air defense systems that Kyiv has said...
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